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Weekly Oil Prices Forecast and Technical Analysis for Nov 26, 2023

Weekly Oil Prices Forecast and Technical Analysis

Last week, we analyzed the price of Brent Crude oil and found that it is currently moving in an upward channel. Over the past two weeks, the price has been fluctuating at the bottom of the channel. It’s important to note that the $77 is considered a strong support level for oil, and we expect the Brent Crude oil to remain above this level.

Weekly Oil Prices Forecast and Technical Analysis Nov 26, 2023

According to an analyst survey by Bloomberg, OPEC+ is expected to extend their oil output cuts

According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts last week on the topic of further OPEC+ production cuts before the originally scheduled November 26 meeting, only one analyst expected an extension of current cuts. However, with the OPEC+ meeting being delayed for four days, around half of those surveyed now anticipate new measures to be taken in order to tighten markets.

According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, around 50% of analysts predict that OPEC+ will extend its existing ~1 million barrels per day cuts into 2024 when it gathers on November 30. Six out of the surveyed analysts predict that there will be further reductions for all cartel members, while two expect that it would only be Saudi Arabia and Russia who will have to make additional cuts. The survey is conducted amidst ongoing internal disputes within OPEC+ over output cuts. Angola, Nigeria, and Congo are among the African nations which are not in favor of seeing their targets being reduced despite their declining capacity.

Analysts surveyed by both Reuters and Bloomberg are optimistic that an agreement will be reached among OPEC+ members during their upcoming meeting on November 30. One source told Reuters that he was 99% confident a deal would be reached, while two others noted that a compromise was close. The analysts surveyed by both are of the opinion that the recent drop in oil prices to $80, coupled with a weak oil demand expected in the first quarter of the New Year, is likely to lead to more potential output cuts rather than just an extension of the current output cut agreement.

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Weekly Oil Prices Forecast and Technical Analysis for Nov 26, 2023