According to last week’s forecast, the Brent crude oil price dropped to $80 and reversed from the red area marked in the chart, and stopped around $82 on Friday.
Looking at the daily chart, positive RSI divergence indicates a reverse in price and starting an upward trend, so for the next week, the Brent crude oil is predicted to rise around 85-87 USD.
Iraq’s commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, Brazil’s rising oil production, and Ukraine’s potential retaliatory attacks on Russian energy infrastructure add to the market dynamics. Increased production in the US and slower growth in China remain challenges. However, the need for the US to increase its strategic petroleum reserves could provide support to oil prices.
Concerns over global growth took precedence in the market, overshadowing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Iraq’s oil minister reiterated the country’s commitment to the OPEC+ agreement on production levels but noted that increased oil exports by some OPEC members are considered “natural.”
Brazil’s rising oil production, with Petrobras announcing a new USD 100 billion capex 5-year plan, remained a focal point.
Ukraine’s Energy Minister suggested potential retaliatory attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia intensifies targeting Ukraine’s electric system during the winter.
Production in the US remains near all-time highs which is helping to increase supply. Slower growth in China is a negative for demand.