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Weekly Crude Oil Prices Forecast Aug 05, 2023

Weekly Oil Prices Forecast and Technical Analysis

The Brent crude oil price reached 86 USD as predicted last week, and it can reach 88 USD during this week. The number 88 is an important resistance for the Brent crude oil price, so we have to see if it breaks the 88 USD or not!

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OPEC’s Production Drops More Than 1 Million Bpd In July

A third survey has come in showing that OPEC’s production dipped even more than earlier estimates, according to Argus, which showed that production fell in July by more than 1 million bpd as Russia and Saudi Arabia stepped up their efforts to curtail production.

Argus’ survey is just one of many, with each survey looking increasingly more bullish.

On July 31, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC output fell 840,000 bpd from June levels, carried mainly by Saudi Arabia, which the survey showed had cut 860,000 bpd from June levels. In total Reuters estimated that OPEC’s production had come in at 27.34 million bpd in July.

Bloomberg’s estimates, published earlier this week, suggested that OPEC’s crude oil production fell by 900,000 in July—the largest monthly drop since 2020 when the group scrambled to slash production in the wake of waning demand courtesy of the covid lockdowns. According to the Bloomberg survey, OPEC production averaged 27.79 million bpd in July, with Saudi Arabia cutting the most, followed by Nigeria and Libya.

From original estimates of an 840,000 bpd cut to 900,000 bpd, and now to more than 1 million bpd in cuts, the surveys for OPEC’s July production cuts is growing increasingly bullish. The Argus survey showed that Saudi Arabia’s production fell 970,000 bpd in July from June levels, sending OPEC+ output to 35.7 million bpd—the lowest level since June 2021.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC+ affirmed on Friday the current levels of oil production of the group and didn’t make any recommendation to change the output at this time, largely as expected, with Saudi Arabia agreeing a day prior to extend its voluntary 1 million bpd production cut into September.

Publish for those interested.

Weekly Crude Oil Prices Forecast Aug 05, 2023