War-related destruction to energy infrastructure across the Gulf region may require up to 58 billion in repairs—significantly higher than earlier projections—with some facilities expected to take years to fully restore. The impact extends far beyond financial loss; prolonged operational disruptions will continue to limit global oil and gas supply, even as markets have yet to fully account for these constraints.
According to new estimates from Rystad Energy, the damage to energy assets in Gulf states totals approximately 58 billion. This figure underscores the severity of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran—far exceeding assumptions made by analysts focused primarily on futures markets. Notably, just two weeks earlier, Rystad had placed the damage at less than half the current estimate.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, stated that more than 80 oil and gas facilities in the Gulf have been damaged by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, as well as by Iran’s retaliatory attacks on states hosting U.S. military bases. Some sites have sustained such extensive destruction that full repairs could take several years.
Rystad further noted that while the minimum repair cost is estimated at 34 billion, the final figure could be considerably higher once all damage assessments are complete. In addition, the specialized equipment required for repairs is expected to strain global supply chains, according to a senior Rystad analyst quoted by CNBC.
Iran faces the largest repair bill at an estimated 19 billion. Qatar follows, with significant damage to its Ras Laffan LNG complex, targeted by Iran in retaliation for Israeli strikes on the shared South Pars/North Field gas reservoir. Qatar Energy estimated in March that repairs would require between two and five years and result in 20 billion in lost revenue.
The nearly 60 billion in infrastructure damage represents more than a fiscal burden. It poses a major supply risk: the longer key oil and gas facilities remain partially or completely offline, the longer global markets will feel the impact from one of the world’s most critical energy-producing regions. Current market prices do not appear to reflect this reality.
Tom Kloza, Chief Analyst at Gulf Oil, told MarketWatch, “I think everybody is trying to assess what oil markets will look like in ‘the day after,’ but to be honest, everyone is flying blind.”
Rystad senior analyst Karan Satwani added, “this is no longer just a story about damaged facilities in the Gulf. It is a stress test for the global energy supply chain.” Satwani emphasized the shortage of both the necessary equipment and specialized labor to deploy to damaged sites—even if the conflict were to end immediately—as these resources are already committed to other LNG and offshore oil projects.
As a result, the effects of the war may ripple far beyond the Gulf’s upstream facilities and refineries, which have suffered some of the highest estimated repair costs. Repairing this infrastructure will require reallocating contractors and equipment from other regions, potentially delaying additional oil and gas projects worldwide. Consequently, supply disruptions are likely to persist far longer than anticipated.
Satwani cautioned that while the 58 billion repair bill is striking, the broader implications for global energy investment timelines may be equally significant. MarketWatch cited additional analysts suggesting that some upstream facilities may not resume operations until late this year—assuming a durable peace agreement is reached soon. Without such an agreement, repairs could take substantially longer, deepening shortages of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products, and potentially reshaping global energy markets for years to come.